Final Forecast: Steady Projections Point To Clear Biden Win As Trump’s Re-Election Hopes Fade
Despite the political drama in the home stretch of the US presidential election, two months-long forecasts have held surprisingly steady in projecting a clear win for Joe Biden on Nov 3.
On the surface, the 2020 US Presidential election seems like a wild roller-coaster ride, with each surprising twist and turn of events inducing both panic and dread among voters and observers alike.
In comparison, the polls and forecasts in the run up to the vote on November 3 have kept an almost Zen-like calm. Two months-long forecasts by FiveThirtyEight and weekly magazine The Economist point to an unambiguous win for challenger Joe Biden despite widespread fears of a contested election.
Meanwhile, White House incumbent Donald Trump has seen his chances of re-election decline steadily in the forecasts despite talk of an “October Surprise”.
We’ll find out for sure from Wednesday afternoon onwards (Singapore time) when the results start trickling in. This is my third and final article in a series forecasting this year’s White House race (earlier pieces here and here).
FINAL FORECAST #1: CLEAR ELECTORAL VOTE MARGIN FOR BIDEN WIN
The White House race is not decided by the popular vote but rather by the electoral college, a unique system where the successful candidate has to stitch together a winning coalition from various states that would give him or her at least 270 Electoral Votes (EVs) out of a possible total of 538.
The fear among political watchers is that neither Trump nor Biden would have a clear margin of victory in terms of EVs, resulting in a messy recount in some states that could take weeks or months, or worse, inspire attempts to grab power in a chaotic post-election environment.
The political chatter stands in stark contrast to the steadiness in the projections of both candidates’ EV count, based on forecasts by FiveThirtyEight and The Economist.
My first forecast in early October, using just one time series model, projected Biden to win with 344 EVs and Trump to lose with about 190 EVs. A month on, the projected numbers from two separate models have not changed significantly, though the FB Prophet model is slightly more bullish on the number of EVs Biden will win.
As I’ve pointed out in the earlier articles, the projected number of EVs is not really the key point of the chart above. What it really shows is that Trump is nowhere near the 270 EVs mark he needs to win re-election, and hasn’t been for some time despite the deluge of polls from various battleground states.
The striking contrast between the projections and the public anxiety can be seen via another chart showing both candidates’ chances of winning the Electoral College.
FINAL FORECAST #2: TRUMP’S DIMMING CHANCES OF WINNING
On June 1, Trump had a 25.7% chance of winning re-election, if you averaged the forecasts by FiveThirtyEight and The Economist. This dropped to 15% on October 1 and 6.9% on November 2.
My final forecast using two time series models gives him an average of 7.6% chance of winning on November 3. To be sure, that’s merely a very slim chance and not a zero-chance of winning.
Again, what the chart shows unambiguously is a very steady decline in Trump’s chance of winning the White House. Biden, meanwhile, has seen his odds of winning rise steadily from about 74% in June to about 92% currently.
Yet public concerns in the US are that the forecasts, based on multiple polls by outfits from both sides of the political spectrum, are potentially wrong and could lead to another surprise outcome like in 2016.
IN NUMBERS WE TRUST?
A healthy skepticism of polls and forecasts is essential for navigating modern politics. But the gulf between American public perception and what the numbers show is irreconcilable at the moment.
Clearly both can’t be right about the outcome of this election. Either the polls are right and Americans have been panicking for nothing, or the US has veered into a political Twilight Zone where attempts to gauge political sentiment are no longer feasible or practical.
Which version of events will come to past? We’ll find out in about 48 hours, hopefully.
DATA AND METHODOLOGY
The approach is unchanged from what I had outlined my earlier post.
As always, if you spot mistakes in this or any of my earlier posts, ping me at:
- Twitter: Chua Chin Hon
- LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/chuachinhon
The repo for this series of posts can be found here.
